House news – Our thanks and double congratulations …
Simon Francis gracefully retired as a Director of Finlaw at the end of February 2025 after serving on the Board for 25 years. We sincerely appreciate the support and wise counsel that Simon shared with us over the years, especially in our formative years where we all had much to learn in the field of financial services. Simon had previously served as a Trustee on the trust that owned our startup business, then called VNH Financial Services, in October 1996. Simon and his family remain valued clients of ours and we look forward to maintaining close contact with him and his extended family in the years ahead.
Congratulations to Kerry Egner who was appointed as a Director on our Board with effect from 1st March 2025. Kerry joined the Finlaw team on a part time consultancy basis at the beginning of 2021 after completing her Postgraduate Diploma in Financial Planning. She studied for her BA Honors in Psychology at Rhodes University followed by a Postgraduate Diploma in Enterprise Management before working in the UK and then in Nyasaland, Northern Mozambique. In 2007 she bought Dark Continent Video Productions for whom she had worked for several years, expanding its activities into a highly successful film and photographic company with her husband, Rayno.
Congratulations to Stacey Barron and her husband Chad on the arrival of their son Connor on the 4th March 2025 – a much anticipated addition to the extended Finlaw family and a special treat for his gorgeous sister, Olivia. Stacey will be on maternity leave until the end of August 2025. It’s a precious time for her and her family to build the bonds that last a lifetime and lay the foundations for the little lad’s future. Kerry will be covering for Stacey in her absence from the office. Stacey will be back with us fulltime just in time to celebrate her 15th Anniversary of being on the Finlaw Team.
And along came Trump version 2
As investors we had enjoyed a period of relative stability and solid growth in markets [including our own] from September 2022 through to end January 2025. I came in like a Wrecking Ball … is the song that sprang to mind after President Trump v2 went ballistic shortly after his inauguration on 20th January 2025 with a plethora of “Executive Orders”. Some were welcome, some a bit weird and several likely to upset countries and global markets. It should not have come as a surprise that markets would be in for a rough ride in 2025. We experienced that in Trump’s first term during 2018 where investors saw returns turn sharply negative in the tariff turmoil that ensued.
The fact remains that Trump did several really good things in his first term that were beneficial for his country and indeed for markets. The most important of these was his reduction of Corporate Tax rates from 35% [punitive] down to 21% [investor friendly] and the “deal” [he loves those] that he struck with the mega corporates to bring their cash and businesses back to the USA subject to a modest “levy”. He campaigned on a promise to further reduce the USA Corporate Tax rate down to 15% – which would certainly make America an attractive home for all forms of commercial activities. Let’s hope that after the dust settles on his personal revenge vendettas and the crazy stuff – he will return to MAGA!
A time for calm heads …
Markets all around the World do not like uncertainty mixed in with an uncomfortable dose of chaos. Emotions are triggered, fear rises to the top and triggers our inherent flight or fight responses. Note that just a single super thin character flips the word between running away and standing firm. Sadly, running away [selling up and retreating to cash] is most definitely the WRONG thing to do and inevitably leads to permanent losses. Standing firm on the other hand and maybe even throwing the odd “punch” [injecting more cash into lower priced but solid investments] has been proven time and again to be the way to survive and thrive. Here is a twenty-year view of the S&P500 share index priced in US Dollars. It includes the biggest financial meltdown since the 1920’s depression period where, in 2007/8 stock values Worldwide lost more than half their values. In some territories [the United Kingdom for e.g.] that price plummet wiped out all the growth that had been enjoyed over the prior ten years. So those who took the flight route, selling out at the bottom of the cycle will forever have lost those earlier gains – whereas those who stayed the course had just over 13 months to wait before all the growth was restored [green line in the graph].
The turnaround periods are much shorter [green lines again] for all the subsequent market price drops shown on the chart. The Covid crises produced the sharpest plummet and fastest recovery of all. The recovery in 2018 following President Trump’s first term in office was also rapid. As the saying goes – it is not timing the markets that matters – it is time in the markets that produces the best growth prospects. M&G Fund Managers produced a graph which you may have seen in our offices which shows that just R100.00 invested in the South Africa Stock market in 1950 and left alone would have grown to R2,358,310.00 by 2020. If you had stayed in cash earning interest on the other hand, you would only have R25,640.00 by 2020.
We are here to guide our clients through the volatility ahead of us all. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if you are uncomfortable, fearful or would just enjoy dropping in for a proper cup of coffee and a chat.
Warm regards,
John & The Finlaw Team
Finlaw Consulting
