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Global Markets – 3rd quarter 2006 : Is the domestic interest rate party finally over?
August 09, 2006
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Isn’t it astounding how suddenly things can change? Although we hinted at a potential increase in domestic interest rates in our last quarterly report, most analysts were not expecting the interest rate increases to commence as quickly as they did. The Reserve Bank increased the
Continue Reading →2nd Quarter 2006: Global Markets 2nd quarter 2006 – The Power of Four
May 09, 2006
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Few of us, perhaps, give much thought to the enormous responsibility shouldered by just four men over interest rates in the four largest regions of the world and the potential impact of these decisions on the global economy. These men, who need little introduction, are Ben Bernanke, T
Continue Reading →1st Quarter 2006: Global Markets 1st quarter 2006 – The Bull Run in Domestic Equities Continues – But, For How Long?
February 09, 2006
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At the time of our quarterly report at the end of February last year the consensus view was that equities would be the asset class of choice for 2005. However, many of the fund management houses cautioned that the “easy money” had already been made. At the time, this was (
Continue Reading →4th Quarter 2005: Global Markets 4th quarter 2005 – A New Chairman for the US Federal Reserve
November 09, 2005
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The world speculated all year about who would succeed Alan Greenspan as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the end of January, following his 18-year tenure. Speculators had narrowed the field of candidates down to 6 and then to 4. The favorite was Bernard Bernanke (Chairman of
Continue Reading →3rd Quarter 2005: Global Markets 3rd quarter 2005 – Currency reform in China – a small step in the right direction
August 09, 2005
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In our last quarterly report we debated when, rather than if, currency reform would take place in China. Shortly thereafter (on 21 July) China announced an adjustment of 2.1% to the Yuan (CNY 8.11 / $ from being pegged at CNY 8.28 / $ since 1997). At the same time, they confirmed the
Continue Reading →2nd Quarter 2005: Global Markets 2nd quarter 2005 – Chinese currency reform – now or never?
May 09, 2005
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There has been increasing speculation in the market as to when China will relax the pegging of the Chinese Yuan to the US Dollar. China is facing increasing pressure, not only from the United States but also from various Asian countries and parts of the European Union, to do so. Beiji
Continue Reading →1st Quarter 2005: Global Markets 1st quarter 2005 – Will the stampede of the South African equity bulls continue in 2005
February 09, 2005
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Having recently visited several fund management houses in Cape Town it was interesting to note the views expressed regarding the outlook for domestic equities this year. We all know that most domestic equity unit trust funds delivered exceptional performances during the second half of
Continue Reading →4th Quarter 2004: Global Markets 4th quarter 2004 – The 59 million Americans who voted for George W. Bush
November 09, 2004
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Fifty six million people didn’t vote for George Bush. That wasn’t enough to stop George Bush from being elected for a second term in the White House. Fifty nine million Americans believe in George Bush and what he stands for. According to Will Walden of the BBC who was one
Continue Reading →3rd Quarter 2004: Global Markets 3rd quarter 2004 – The roller coaster ride of the Rand
August 09, 2004
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These days, the word “certainty” is seldom used in conjunction with the Rand. However, there is one certainty that we have come to associate with the Rand in more recent years. It is neither the strength nor weakness of the Rand, but rather something connected to both R
Continue Reading →2nd Quarter 2004: Global Markets 2nd quarter 2004 – The China Story
May 09, 2004
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By mid 2002, China made up 12% of world GDP – which is a marked improvement from having represented 3% some 22 years ago. It was already projected then that by the end of 2003 China would be the world’s biggest consumer of platinum, copper, iron ore and aluminium. During 2
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